Looking realistically optimistically at 2026

15 Jan 2026 by Steven Giannoulis

Create Powerful work 3 HR

The following reflects my honest and personal view of last year and how I see the year ahead.

If I’m honest, 2025 was as tough as it gets.

Tougher than the previous three or four years, which is saying something. Maybe it was the accumulation of everything that’s come before, or maybe it was because we genuinely expected things to start easing. Either way, I ended the year seriously burnt out, drained of energy and struggling to keep my emotions in check.

Every day felt pressured. And it wasn’t just the big, difficult decisions we had to make. Decisions that should have been simple, run-of-the-mill BAU moments suddenly carried more weight than usual. Like many leaders, my brain was stuck in survival mode. And living like that for an extended period takes a real toll on your physical and mental wellbeing.

The design and communications sector has felt this acutely. Over the past five years we’ve seen a tight economy squeeze discretionary marketing spend and price expectations, while the landscape was shifting under our feet. AI-driven design and copy tools have exploded. Access to low-cost global creative support has become frictionless. Freelancers, made redundant from the large agencies, working from their living rooms and without the overheads of specialist agencies, won the more price-sensitive work. So it’s not surprising that many larger studios have scaled right back, sometimes to a just a handful of people. 

We responded with a different approach, underpinned by a longer term view. It was a survival strategy that wasn’t as obvious (compared to just slashing more costs), and that added an extra layer of pressure in decision-making.

We’ve retained most of our in-house capability while also strengthening our partner networks. That hasn’t happened by accident or without a whole lot of determination, resilience and fight from our team. We’ve adapted our offering to better reflect what clients actually need today, not what they needed five years ago. We diversified our approach to new business and added new revenue streams, some not so directly reliant on discretionary client spend. 

As we head into our 50th year of business, I’m genuinely proud that we’re still here, still delivering effective strategic-creative work that connects with audiences in meaningful ways to drive the outcomes our clients need. And I’m proud that we’ve largely taken our team with us through the tough times.

For the first time in a while I’m feeling positive about what’s ahead. My confidence is founded on the economic fundamentals of growth. According to KiwiBank economists, growth is expected to return in a more meaningful way, with forecasts pointing to solid growth of around 2.4 percent this year. Business confidence surveys are showing a noticeable lift, with many firms expecting conditions to improve after several flat or contracting years. GDP data from late 2025 suggests activity is beginning to broaden out across sectors, rather than being driven by just a few pockets of the economy.

That doesn’t mean everything is suddenly rosy. Government finances are still under pressure and many businesses are still struggling to keep their heads above water. But confidence matters. When confidence improves, decisions change. Investment follows. And that’s when momentum really starts to build.

I don’t expect 2026 to be an amazing, effortless year where everything suddenly clicks. But I do expect it to be better. And sometimes a few small steps forward is enough. Coupled with the new offering, efficiencies and cost savings many of us have put in place over the last few years, the year ahead should feel different. There should be room for the little things that make work more enjoyable and stress more manageable. The things that allow us to connect, on a more human level, with our teams and our clients. And there should be space for projects that go beyond the essentials, feeding our desire for creative stretch.

One thing I’m hoping to see is businesses actively embracing the recovery rather than sitting on their hands, without the wait-and-see attitude that has dominated decision-making in recent years. Prolonged caution can slow the recovery for everyone. Taking some bold steps - whether that’s investing in brand, improving customer experience, or backing innovation and new ideas - doesn’t just help the wider market. It also puts those businesses in a stronger competitive position. In many ways, it’s self-fulfilling.

I’m also hoping organisations are honest with themselves about the fact that the world has changed. Doing more of the same is unlikely to cut it. Customers, employees and investors have different expectations now. That means rethinking everything from brand positioning and product offerings to supply chains, digital platforms and how people are engaged and retained. 2026 has the potential to be a genuine turning point for companies willing to take that step back and rethink what success looks like.

I also expect 2026 to be the year where we see a real shift in how organisations approach AI. The momentum has been building for a while, but many teams have been too focused on short-term survival to fully commit to unlocking its potential. My sense is that this is the year many leaders will finally lift their eyes to the horizon and ask what they need to do now to be competitive in three to five years’ time. That’s a conversation we’re already having internally, and increasingly with our clients.

So I’m kicking off 2026 with an optimistic realism mindset. Optimistic because the fundamentals are improving and that should lead to more activity and more ambition from our clients. Optimistic because change is coming, and change creates opportunity. And optimistic because we’ve kept our good people, and added new skills and offerings to their armoury. But realistic because after several tough years, businesses are still rebuilding capability, capacity, and confidence. People are tired and stretched, capital is depleted, and there is significant political uncertainty (locally and internationally) on the horizon, so it will take time to get all cylinders firing again.

But that’s okay. Any momentum is good. 2026 doesn’t need to be perfect. It just needs to be a year where we move forward with intent, make braver decisions, and start building the next phase rather than just surviving the last one.

And honestly, after the last few years, that feels like progress worth getting excited about.

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